利率市场化对货币政策工具有效性影响——开放条件下动态随机一般均衡分析

The Impact of Interest Rate Liberalization on Monetary Policy Effectiveness under Open Conditions

本文假定资本完全流动,通过构建、校准和模拟开放的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),研究了利率市场化对我国货币政策有效性的影响。结果表明:国内外货币政策冲击有助于降低通胀,且利率市场化能更好地控制通胀,且随着利率上升,产出对国内外货币政策冲击的初始反应均减弱;随着利率市场化,技术冲击有助于降低通胀和促进经济增长;我国产出波动、通胀波动主要依赖于国内冲击因素,随着利率市场化,对产出波动,技术冲击的解释力度逐渐增大,对通胀波动,货币政策冲击的解释力度逐渐增大;利率市场化有利于全社会总福利水平提高,且存在一个最优的利率水平(7%左右),使得全社会总福利损失达最小。

Under the complete capital mobility assumption and open conditions,through constructing,calibrating and simulating the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model（DSGE）,this paper analyses the impact of the interest rate marketization on the monetary policy effectiveness.The results show that firstly the interest rate marketization can better control the inflation,and with the interest rates rising,the output initial reaction to the domestic and oversea monetary policy shocks is weakened.Secondly,with the interest rate marketization,the domestic technology shock helps reduce the inflation and promote the economic growth.Thirdly,with the interest rate rising,for the output volatility,the explanation intensity of the technology impact gradually increases,while for the inflation volatility,the explanation intensity of the monetary policy impact gradually increases.Finally,as interest rates rise,the social welfare losses decline gradually.There exists an optimal interest rates level at which the welfare losses get to minimum.