灰色理论和神经网络对粮食产量的预测

A Forecast of Grain Yield Under the Grey Theory and Neural Network Theory

选取农作物总面积,成灾面积,有效灌溉面积,农用化肥施用量和乡村人口来构建1-1-6-1灰色神经网络,用训练好的网络预测了2009年至2011年粮食产量,实验结果表明灰色神经网络预测的效果比BP神经网络效果好,精度高。

This paper introduces the Theory of Grey and the Nural Ntwork Theory,and constructed 1- 1- 6- 1 grey neural network with total crop area,disaster area,effective irrigation area,chemical fertilizer consumption and rural population. A trained network is used to forecast the grain yield from 2009 to 2011. Result of experiment shows that grey neural network has better forecasting effect than BP neural network with higher precision.