IPCC第五次评估报告历史排放趋势和未来减缓情景相关核心结论解读分析

Analysis on the Key Findings Related to Historical Emission Trends and Future Mitigation Scenarios from the Working Group Ⅲ Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

IPCC历次评估报告是国际社会和各国决策者制定相关政策的重要依据。2014年4月发布的第五次评估报告第三工作组报告中有关排放历史趋势和未来减缓情景的相关内容是历次评估报告的核心内容,对国际谈判中有关各主要缔约方定位、减排责任划分、国别分组以及未来全球和国别中长期减缓目标确定、全球排放空间分配等问题产生重要影响,也是各国确定低碳发展目标和制定相关政策的重要参考依据。在综述分析报告有关排放趋势,驱动因子,2℃温控目标下的排放空间、路径、成本、技术选择和减排责任分摊等关键结论的基础上,探讨了相关结论对国际气候谈判和国内低碳发展的可能影响和启示,以及如何在决策过程中正确、科学地理解和应用这些结论。

The IPCC assessment reports serve as important policy basis for the international society and national decision makers. Conclusions related to historical emission trends and future mitigation scenarios are the core subjects in 1PCC WGIII report issued in April 2014, which will substantially influence the national positioning, mitigation responsibility allocation and national groupings in international negotiation, as well as global and national mid/long term mitigation targets setting and future global emission budget allocation. Based on comprehensive review and analysis of the key conclusions regarding historical emission trends and its drivers, emission budget and allocation, pathway, cost and technology choices under 2 degree target, etc. in the assessment report, this article further discuss the potential impacts of related conclusions on international climate change negotiation and domestic low-carbon development, as well as how to understand and apply these conclusions in decision making in an accurate and scientific manner.