对IPCC第五次评估报告减缓气候变化国际合作评估结果的解读

Interpretation of International Cooperation on Mitigation from IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

IPCC第五次评估报告第三工作组报告首次对减缓气候变化国际合作进行了独立成章的评估。主要结论认为,《联合国气候变化框架公约》依然是国际合作主要多边论坛,但对该《公约》基本原则的理解出现分歧,《京都议定书》的表现不尽如人意;目前国际合作机制在架构和参与主体方面日趋多元化;国际合作所面临的主要问题是参与度不够、遵约机制不健全。一个"自下而上"的全球协议、资金和技术激励可以促进广泛参与,贸易措施的介入可以完善气候政策、促进参与和遵约,《公约》外的各种小多边主义通过对接可对《公约》机制起到良好的补充作用。这些评估结论可能对2020年后应对气候变化国际合作产生重要影响。

As an independent chapter for the first time, international cooperation on mitigation is assessed comprehensively in the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC. The major conclusions include： United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change （UNFCCC） is the main multilateral forum, however, the basic principle of UNFCCC should be evolved as pattern of development, emission and impacts change, and the Kyoto Protocol together with CDM has not been as successful as intended; international cooperation on climate change has become more institutionally diverse over the past decade, varying in the degree to which their authority is centralized; the lessons from existing agreements are participation and compliance. A ＂bottom-up＂ mechanism and finance/technology incentives encourage broad participation, so does trade measures, which can also be used to enhance compliance. Through policy linkage, the diversified mechanisms outside UNFCCC can complement a binding international agreement on climate change. The assessment has significant impacts on international cooperation after 2020.