船舶到港分布律的研究及合理泊位数的计算

Distribution law of ships to port and calculation of reasonable number of berths

用数理统计的方法分析、推求、论证船舶到港的分布律服从二项分布,指出其数学物理意义明确、符合"客观规律",泊松分布只是二项分布的一种方便的近似;并通过实例予以验证两种分布的相似性,同时分析、论述了泊松分布的特征;最后给出了利用泊松分布替代二项分布的使用条件,举例比较两种计算方法的简捷与繁琐;建立合理泊位数的判定式,介绍利用排队论计算合理泊位数的具体方法和步骤,并通过实例予以运用。

The paper demonstrates that the distribution law of ships to port obeys the binomial distribution by mathematical statistics, the mathematical and physical meanings are clear, and afford to the objective law. The binomial distribution matches the truth. The Poisson distribution is a similar method of the binomial distribution. This paper validates the similarity of the two distributions by examples, expounds the feature of Poisson distribution, and points out the condition of using Poisson distribution instead of the binomial distribution by comparing the two calculation methods. This paper also establishes the discriminant of the rational number of berths, introduces the method and step of calculation of reasonable number of berths by the queuing theory, and applies them to practical cases.