基于逆向扩散和分层赋权的黄河堤防工程安全评价

Research on safety evaluation of Yellow River embankment based on consequence-reverse-diffusion and layered-weight method

针对黄河堤防工程安全的评价问题,首先基于后果逆向扩散法,构建了多层次半结构性的评价指标体系;基于分层赋权思路,对多层次的黄河堤防评价体系进行赋权。第1层(输入层)通过计算熵值权向量来确定指标的数学权向量,第2层(准则层)采用熵值权向量、等权重和经验赋权法3种权向量,利用模糊评价模型进行计算对比。选择黄河下游6个典型堤段进行实例计算,第2层的计算中采用了3种权重:熵值权向量(0.394,0.606),等权重(0.500,0.500)和主观权重(0.600,0.400)。根据评价结果可知,各堤段综合评价值基本一致。工程因素子系统最优的是堤防1、3、4,非工程因素子系统最优的是堤防5、6,熵值权向量和等权重评价结果均为堤防5黄河北岸陶城铺段堤防最优;主观权重评价为堤防3黄河南岸东平湖段堤防最优。后果逆向扩散法可以快速全面地确定安全影响因子,分层赋权可以有效地克服人为权重的影响,从而保证获得客观合理的安全评价值,并能根据评价结果找到堤防工程安全相对薄弱的因素,为黄河堤防的安全运用提供数据支撑。

To make a safety evaluation for the embankment in the Lower Yellow River,a multi-level and semi-structured evaluation index system has been constructed on the basis of the consequence-reverse-diffusion method,giving weights to the multi-objective and multi-level system based on the layered-weight method. In the first layer（input layer）,the index weight is confirmed through the calculation of entropy-weight-vector,and in the second layer（criterion layer）,the sub-system weight is confirmed through three methods：entropy-weight-vector,equal-weight and experience weight. At last,the fuzzy evaluation model isused to calculate and compare the results. Taking six typical sections of embankment in the Lower Yellow River as a case study,in calculation of the second layer,three kinds of weight are adopted,i.e.,the en-tropy-weight-vector（0.394,0.606）,the equal-weight（0.500,0.500） and the subjective weight（0.600,0.400）. According to the results,the comprehensive evaluation values for each section of embankment arebasically consistent. The optimum section in sub-system of engineering factors are those of No.1,No.3,No.4 embankment,and the optimum ones of non-engineering factors are those of No.5,No.6 embankment.The best one is the No.5 section of Taochengpu embankment in evaluation results based on both entropy-weight-vector and equal-weight,and the No.3 section of Dongpinghu embankment based on the results of subjective-weight. The consequences-reverse-diffusion method can quickly determine safety factors comprehensively,and the layered-weight method can effectively overcome the human influence,so that we can ob-tain objective and reasonable safety evaluation value,and find relatively weak levee engineering. Above research results can provide data support used for the safety management of the Yellow River embankment.