基于无失效数据的区域水库群可靠性评价

Reliability Analysis of Regional Reservoir Group Based on Zero-failure Data

为解决特定区域的水库群整体可靠性评价问题,针对水库群的高可靠性特征,提出了基于E-Bayes理论的区域水库群可靠性评价方法,该方法可以根据选定区域的大小进行水库群可靠性的多尺度评价,进而以某省大中型水库群为例,给出了水库群的整体可靠度的点估计和区间估计,验证了本文方法的合理性和可行性。

For the high reliability of reservoir group,a new regional reservoir group reliability evaluation method based E-Bayes theory is presented to solve integral reliability evaluation for the specific region of reservoir group.The novel method can provide multi-scale assessment of reliability of reservoir group according to the selected region.A case of large and middle reservoir group in a certain province is provided,which gets the point and interval estimation of the integral reliability for the reservoir group.It demonstrates that this method is reasonable and practicable.