基于专利的技术预测评价指标体系及其实证研究

Evaluation Indicators System of Technology Forecasting and its Empirical Study Based on the Patent

指出专利已经成为技术发展最重要的信息源,同时也为技术预测提供技术条件。在当前研究的基础上,从技术发展趋势、成熟度和演化方向3个方面,以专利指标为基础构建技术预测模型及评价指标体系,借助德温特世界专利创新索引数据库(Derwent Innovation Index,简称DII)的专利数据,针对固体氧化物燃料电池(SOFC)技术开展技术预测研究,以验证模型的可行性。结果证明,本文所构建的预测模型和评价指标体系具有较高程度的可行性和有效性。未来各国将继续致力于SOFC技术中固体电解质和密封材料的改进。

Patent has become the most important information source of technological development, and provides technical conditions for technology forecasting. On the basis of the present research, from three aspects of the trend, maturity and evolution direction of technological development and according to the patent indicators, it builds the technology forecasting model and evaluation index system. Then using the patent data of Derwent Innovation Index, it sets an example about solid oxide fuel cell technology for forecasting, to verify the feasibility of the model. The SOFC technology will con- tinue to focus on the improvement of solid electrolyte and sealing material. The result shows that the forecasting model and the evaluation index system have a high degree of feasibility and effectiveness.