加拿大油砂八大市场未来走向分析

The top-8 markets of the future for Canadian oil sands production

2012年加拿大油砂产量已达175万桶/日,接近全国原油总产量的一半。长期以来,美国一直是加拿大油砂唯一的出口目的地,加拿大也是美国最大的原油供应国。目前,加拿大油砂产量逐步增长,与出口压力的矛盾不断加大。加拿大油砂亟需拓展新市场、培育新客户的原因:1)客户单一,对美国过度依赖,存在一定市场风险;2)加原油在美销售折价严重,经济利益受损;3)美国本土致密油崛起,抑制油砂市场扩张。加拿大油砂未来八大市场的走向:1)美国东海岸将会小幅增长;2)美国中西部保持领袖地位;3)美国墨西哥湾彰显重要作用;4)美国落基山脉仍然维持小型封闭状态;5)美国西海岸拥有巨大潜能;6)东加拿大具有良好预期;7)西加拿大改变不大,基本维持现状;8)东亚市场增长空间惊人,不容忽视。

In 2012 Canadian oil sands production was 1.75 MMbbl/d, which was almost half of Canada's total oil production. For a long time the U.S. remained the only export destination for Canadian oil sands production while Canada has stayed the US's biggest oil supplying country. The imperative to export an increment of Canadian oil sands production and the pressure to export is bigger than ever. Canadian oil sands need to expand to new markets and cultivate new customers for 3 reasons: 1) a single customer means overdependence on one market; 2) the price in the U.S. for Canadian oil is much lower than the international oil price; 3) the sharply rising productionof U.S. tight oil will cannibalize some oil sands markets. The top-8 markets of the future for Canadian oil sands production are: 1) a slightly bigger East Coast of the U.S.; 2) the US MidWest as the lead market; 3) the Gulf of Mexico; 4) the still small and closed Rocky Mountain states of the U.S.; 5) the US West Coast with huge potential; 6) Eastern Canada with good prospects; 7) Western Canada with practically no change; and 8) East Asia with amazing room to grow.