美国原油出口现状及分析

Status of U.S. crude oil exports

美国国内石油和天然气产量持续大幅增长,北美市场的原油供需基本面将发生供大于需的逆转,美国国内石油生产商正考虑开辟全球市场,并呼吁政府取消美国原油出口禁令。1975年,因阿拉伯石油禁运,美国政府通过一系列法案,一般性地禁止美国原油出口。随着北美原油产量的上升,美国放松原油出口管制将成为一个趋势,但过程将审慎而漫长。预计本届美国政府不会就原油出口禁令做立法性变更,但会在现行法律框架下通过一些形式来放宽许可批准条件。中国石油企业参与美国原油出口到中国的运作,将为中国能源安全供应提供一条途径,也将为中国在国际市场上同其他生产商对话增加筹码。

American domestic oil and gas production continues to increase, as crude oil supply and demand fundamentals for the North American market will override any need for reversal, and as the US domestic oil producers consider opening up to global markets and call on the government to abolish the US's crude oil export ban. In 1975, due to the Arab oil embargo, the U.S. government passed a series of bills imposing a general ban on U.S. crude oil exports. With the rise in crude oil production in North America, relaxation of US crude oil export controls will become a trend, but the process will be careful and lengthy. Expect the U.S. government not to make any legislative change to the crude oil export ban but rather do some form of relaxation of conditions for export licensing approval under the existing legal framework. The best likelihood of a looser export policy by the current or future administrations is a reclassification of condensate to allow for better economics of production by domestic crude oil companies, or an increasing 'case by case' basis for exports in the best national interest. Chinese enterprises will participate in any action involving US crude oil exports to China and thereby contribute to China's security of energy supply. China will also raise the stakes in the international market in dialogue with other producers.