我国住房价格未来走向模拟与调控——基于人口结构和城镇化长周期视角

Simulation and Regulation of the Future Trend of China's Housing Price

结合已有文献和实证检验发现,我国住房价格高速攀升与人口结构的变迁和城镇化进程的加快关系密切,其中城镇化为直接推动力,人口结构以城镇化为媒介影响住房价格,且二者对住房价格的推动力将逐渐减弱直至消失。通过构建含有城镇人口增速的Poterba模型进行模拟分析,结果表明:在现有人口结构变迁和城镇化发展趋势下,我国住房价格将于2021年转为负增长,即我国的住房市场在未来的7年左右仍然看好;若放宽二胎政策并加大户籍制度改革力度,主动、恰当地调整人口结构和城镇化的发展趋势,可将住房价格负增长转折时间点推迟至2027年左右。

Combining with the existing literature and empirical test,the skyrocket of housing price is closely related to the changes of population structure and speeding up of urbanization. Urbanization is the direct impetus. Population structure affects the housing prices through urbanization. Above all,the impetus will become increasingly weaker and disappear in the end. By building the Poterba model which contains the growth of urban population,the results show that China＆#39;s housing prices will turn into negative in around 2021 under the existing trend of population structure change and urbanization development. If the government broaden the two-child policy and increase the intensity of the household registration system reform,the structure of population and the development trend of urbanization would be adjusted actively. Consequently,the point when the housing prices turn into negative can be delayed until around 2027.