中俄日三角关系的互动规律

The Interactive Rules of the Triangular Relations among China,Russia and Japan

近年来,中日关系的不稳定引发俄日、中俄关系的变化。本文通过对中俄日三角关系及其相互影响规律的研究,认为日本加强与俄罗斯的合作有着多层的战略考虑,其基本意图是满足国内经济需求,改善日俄关系,平衡中国的崛起。从长远来看,日本虽极力拉拢俄罗斯,但对中俄两国合作产生的负面作用有限,中俄关系的发展前景更为乐观。在中俄战略协作伙伴关系不断加强的趋势下,中俄日三角关系的互动始终呈现两边长、一边短的状态,这与日本和美国建立、发展紧密的同盟关系,从而对中俄两国构成直接的安全威胁有关。受中俄日三角关系特点的制约,东北亚地区的多边合作很难展开。

In recent years,the instability of the Sino-Japanese relationship triggered changes of Russia-Japan relations and Sino-Russian relations.By studying the rules of the triangular relations among China, Russia and Japan,this paper argues the reasons why Japan strengthens the cooperation with Russia are to meet the domestic economic demand,to improve bilateral relations,and to balance the rise of China.From a long-term point of view,Japan＆#39;s actions have limited negative effects on the Sino-Russian cooperation, and the prospect of China-Russia relations is more optimistic.With the trend of intensive Sino-Russian strategic cooperative partnership,the interaction of triangular relations among China,Russia and Japan is always cripples,with two long lines and one short line.It owes to the establishment and development of close alliance between Japan and America,which poses a direct safety threat to Russia and China.Restrict-ed by the characters of the triangular relations,it is very difficult to conduct multilateral cooperation in Northeast Asia.