基于LMDI的粮食生产因素分解模型及实证分析——以河南省为例

Factor Decomposition of Grain Production at County Level in Henan Based on LMDI

为了揭示河南省省级、地级市和县域尺度粮食产量变动的因素贡献,运用对数平均迪氏分解模型开展1980—2010年间粮食产量变动的因素分解研究。结果表明:1)在省域尺度上,河南省粮食产量增加5437.1万t,耕地面积、复种指数、粮作比例和粮食单产的贡献分别为?175.4万、1165.7万、?573.4万和2871.6万t;2)从地级市看,粮食单产效应和复种指数效应全部为正值,耕地面积效应和粮作比例效应基本为负值,地级市间各分解因素效应的差异显著;3)县域粮食生产"东高西低"的分异格局明显,4个因素贡献的县域差异显著,粮食单产效应叠加上复种指数效应促使豫东多数县域粮食总产量的显著增加。防止耕地快速"非农化"与非粮化以稳定耕地面积和粮食作物面积比例,同时实施高标准基本农田建设工程和粮食生产要素投入优化策略,是提升河南省粮食产量的重要途径。

The LMDI technique and decomposition method are used to study the contribution of factors to grain production change based on grain production calculating model in Henan from 1980 to 2010. The growth of grain production is decomposed into four effects, including cultivated land area, multiple-cropping index, grain farming index and grain yield per hectare, and then accumulated effect of each factor is explored. Firstly, grain production increases by 54.371 million ton from 1980 to 2010. It is estimated that the accumulated contribution values of cultivated land area, multiple-cropping index, grain farming index and grain yield per hectare at province level are -1.754 million, 11,657 million, -5.734 million and 28.716 million ton, respectively. Grain yield per hectare is the dominant contributor to total grain increment, and multiple-cropping index is second. Secondly, at prefecture-city level, the effect of grain yield per hectare and multiple-cropping index is positive, while the other two factors in most of prefecture cities are negative. Thirdly, the pattern ＂high in the eastern while low in the western＂ of.g~~~l production at county level in Henan is very evident, and there are obvious differences among accumulated effects of the four factors. Overall, multiple-cropping index and grain yield per hectare result in remarkable grain increment in eastern Henan. Aiming at steady and continuous increase in grain production, some work such as cultivated land protection mechanism to increase grain sowing area, investment policy of agricultural infrastructure andoptimization of agricultural inputs to improve grain yield per hectare should be enhanced.