液氨泄漏爆炸的模糊事故树分析研究

Fuzzy Tree Analysis Model for Liquid Ammonia Leakage Explosion

对可能引起液氨储罐发生泄漏爆炸的原因进行了分析,将事故树和模糊集理论相结合,计算事故发生的概率,分析事故发生的可能性,根据基本事件的模糊概率,运用与或门模糊算子,求得液氨储罐系统发生泄漏的概率在1.07×10-6~2.77×10-6,最大可能为2.77×10-6,发生爆炸的概率在7.11×10-6~3.00×10-5之间,最大可能为3.00×10-5,根据模糊事故树分析提出相应的事故防范措施,对类似企业的风险管理提供参考依据.

The possible causes of liquid ammonia tank leakage explosion were analyzed. The probability of accidents was calculated combining the accident tree and fuzzy set theory. The possibility of accident was ana- lyzed according to the fuzzy probability of basic events. The probability of leakage of liquid ammonia tank net- work system was in range of 1.07× 10-6 to 1.07 × 10-6, the maximum possible was 2.77 × 10-6. The probabib ity of explosion was in range of 7.11 × 10-6 to 7.11 × 10-5, the maximum possible was 3.00X 10-5. The corre- sponding measures to prevent accidents was put forward according to the fuzzy fault tree analysis.