基于多因素灰色模型的技术技能型人才需求预测与分析——以天津市为例

Analysis and Prediction of Demand for Technological and Skilled Talents Based on Multi-factor Gray Model——In the case of Tianjin

现代职业教育的发展需要对技术技能型人才需求进行准确预估。基于灰色GM（1,1）预测模型和线性回归原理,构建以第一、二、三产业增加值、固定资产投资、社会劳动力资源增量、口岸进出口总额为主要因素的技术技能型人才多因素灰色预测模型,预测2013~2017年天津市技术技能型人才的需求状况和发展趋势,结果显示：技术技能型人才需求规模与区域经济发展状态存在一定的耦合性,但在劳动力成本不断上涨等因素的影响下,第三产业对于技术技能型人才需求呈现＂弱化＂现象。

The development of modern vocational education is based on the forecasting of technology and skilled talentsdemand. Based on the gray forecasting model and linear regression model, multi-factor gray forecasting model of technolo-gy and skilled talents demand is built on the first industry, second industry and third industry, investment in fixed assets,social total increment of labor resources, the port of import and export. The situation and development trend of technologyand skilled talents demand in 2013-2015 is predicted. The results show that the technology and skilled talents demandand regional economic development has a certain relationship, but the effects of rising labor costs and others make thethird industry for technical talents demand showing＂weakening＂phenomenon.