中国农业技术类型对粮食综合生产能力影响的实证分析

An empirical analysis of the impact of agricultural technology on food comprehensive production capacity in China

经过改革开放三十多年的生产发展,粮食产量实现了历史突破性的"十连增",但由于受到了资源禀赋限制和快速的工业化、城镇化影响,未来中国粮食产业增产潜力并不容乐观。选取水土资源、劳动力资源作为影响粮食综合生产能力的主要制约因素,而打破约束实现粮食持续增产的唯一手段是必须依靠农业技术进步来支撑农业发展。通过实证分析结果表明,由于受到生物化学型技术和机械型技术的干扰型影响,在目前资源禀赋不断恶化的情况下,未来依然能够实现粮食可持续的增产可行路径是增加两类技术的要素投入,其中生物化学型技术投入在粮食生产中起主要影响作用,应作为农业科技投入的重点以及近几年农业技术进步的主要方向,尤其是以农业生物技术为代表的技术创新与应用将为中国粮食产业带来革新。

After three decades of economic reform and opening up, food production in China has made a historic breakthrough on continuous growth for ten years. However, the potential growthfor China＇s food industry is not optimistic, due to resource constraints in labor, soil, and water and rapid speed of industrialization and urbanization. To overcome these constraints, developing agricultural technology is the only way to improve the food production continuously. Despite some disturbance, biochemical and mechanical technology provides a feasible path to achieve sustainable development on food production under current deteriorating resources endowment. Within these two types of technology, biochemical technology plays a more significant role on food production, and should be considered as the primary investment in agricultural technology as well as the main direction of agricultural technological progress in the coming years. Especially, agricultural biotechnology as the representative of technological innovation and application will lead to a new revolution of China＇s grain industry.