市场开放下的中国大豆产业发展:基本取向与定位

Where to go China's soybean industry under the pressure of international competition

过去10多年,面对中国大豆消费需求的持续快速增长,国外大豆进口数量呈迅猛增长态势,而国产大豆发展停滞不前,甚至出现明显萎缩。针对当前国产大豆发展的诸多争议,基于中国大豆生产、消费、贸易的分析预测,从国内资源禀赋、竞争作物收益、农业政策导向、比较优势等视角,探讨国产大豆发展的基本取向与产业定位。研究表明,由于中国农业资源约束增强、与粮油作物相比缺乏竞争优势,使国产大豆供给总量有限;面对持续增长的大豆消费需求,国外大豆进口仍将保持高位水平;与进口大豆相比,国产大豆在成本和价格等方面处于明显竞争劣势,且在榨油领域两者的替代较强,但国产大豆在食品加工领域具有明显竞争优势,且表现为弱替代性。中国发展转基因大豆或非转基因高油大豆都会缺乏竞争优势,因此只有将非转基因、高蛋白、食品大豆作为中国大豆产业发展的基本方向和总体定位。

The past ten years have seen continuous and rapid growth of soybean consumption but with stagnated or even decreased soybean production in China. As a result, China＇s soybean imports skyrocketed at the same time to fill the domestic shortage. Facing all these ongoing debates about how China should develop its soybean industry in the near future, this paper explores the development direction of China＇s soybean industry based on the forecast of soybean production, consumption, import, and export in China as welt as the comprehensive analyses of resource endowment, opportunity costs, agricultural policies, and comparative advantages concerned about China＇s soybean industry. The study shows that in general the soybean production potential in China is limited by the increased constraints on agricultural resources, and the lack of competitive advantage compared to other grain and oil crops. To meet the increasing growth of domestic soybean consumption demand, China has to maintain a relatively large amount of soybean import. In addition, China has lost its Cost and price competitiveness in the production of high oil soybean compared to other soybean producing countries. Therefore it is not wise to encourage the production of either genetically modified organisms （GMO） soybean or non-GMO high oil soybean to compete with others. Instead, China should enhance and expand the production ofnon-GMO, with high protein content, and directly for eating soybean varieties since China does have dominant advantage in this area.