黄河上游头道拐站年径流输沙系列突变点识别与综合诊断

Identification and Comprehensive Diagnosis of Sharp Change of Annual Runoff Volume and Silt Discharge Series at Toudaoguai Hydrometric Station in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River

根据1950—2010年水文资料,采用Mann-Kendall秩次检验法(M-K法)、Pettitt检定法、Mann-Whitney-Pettitt法(MWP法)、有序聚类分析法和独立同分布检验5种方法,对黄河上游沙漠宽谷河段出口控制断面头道拐水文站实测年径流输沙系列变化趋势和突变点进行了识别和综合诊断,并采用降雨径流泥沙双累积曲线的分析结果加以佐证,对突变点的物理成因进行剖析。结果表明:对头道拐站来水来沙变化影响最大的是刘家峡、龙羊峡水库的投入运行,减少了水沙输送,并可明确判别出1986年和1985年分别是头道拐站实测年径流量和年输沙量变化的主要突变点;次要突变点区间为1968—1970年。该研究结果可为分析头道拐站水沙关系变化及其驱动因子的贡献率奠定基础。

Based on the hydrological data measured at Toudaoguai Hydrometric Station during the period of 1950- 2010, the Mann-Kendall Ranking test （M-K test method ）, Pettitt method, Mann-Whitney-Pettitt method （MWP method）, sequential clustering analysis and independent identically distributed test were used to identify and comprehensively assess the trends of annual runoff volume and annual silt discharge as well as their sharp changes along the desert wide-valley in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, these changes were validated with the double mass curve of streamflow and silt discharge, and the physical causes resulting in the sharp changes were analyzed. The results showed that the most significant effect on the inflow and silt discharge at Toudaoguai Hydrometric Station was the operation of Liujiaxia and the Longyangxia reservoirs. The measured results revealed that the sharp changes of streamflow and silt discharge at the station occurred in 1986 and 1985, and the second sharp change occurred during the period 1968 - 1970. The results could provide a basis for analyzing the changes of streamflow and silt discharge and their driving factors at Toudaoguai Hydrometric Station.