蒸发波导诊断模式敏感性分析

Sensitivity analysis of evaportion duct model

研究蒸发波导特征量对边界层气象水文要素的敏感性对于评估目前蒸发波导观测设备的精度指标和利用海气耦合数值预报模式预报蒸发波导特征参数的可行性研究具有重要的参考价值。本文介绍了Paulus-Jeske模式(P-J模式)和Babin模式确定蒸发波导高度的方法,并利用P-J模式和Babin模式诊断分析了不同的输入参数对于模式敏感性的影响。结果表明:在稳定层结条件下,Babin模式对于气温的扰动最敏感,P-J模式对于相对湿度的扰动最敏感;在不稳定层结条件下,Babin模式对于海表温度的扰动最敏感。P-J模式对于相对湿度的扰动最敏感。总之,Babin模式对于气象水文要素扰动的敏感性比P-J模式的大。

Researching the sensitivity of the characteristic parameter of evaporation duct to hydrometeorological element in boundary layer has important reference value for evaluating the accuracy index ofobservational equipment about evaporation duct at present and feasibility study about forecasting thecharacteristic parameter of evaporation duct by air-sea coupling numerical prediction model. The method ofdetermining the evaporation duct height for Paulus-Jeske mode （P-J mode） and Babin mode is introduced. Theeffect to different input parameters for the model sensitivity is diagnosed and analyzed. The results indicatethat Babin model is in the most sensitive model when the change happens in the scope of disturbance fromtemperature and P-J model is in most sensitive one when the change happens in the scope of disturbance fromrelative humidity in stable conditions. Babin model is in the most sensitive model when the change happens inthe scope of disturbance from sea surface temperature and P-J model is the most sensitive One when the changehappens in the scope of disturbance from relative humidity in unstable conditions. Babin model is moresensitive than P-J model by the disturbance of hydro meteorological elements.