应用德尔菲法评估上海市松江区2013—2014年冬春季呼吸道传染病风险

Delphi method applied for assessment of respiratory infectious disease risk in winter of 2013 and spring of 2014 in Songjiang District of Shanghai

[目的]通过风险评估,探讨上海市松江区2013—2014年冬春季呼吸道传染病发生的可能性、危害性、人群易感性及综合风险大小,为针对性地开展传染病防控提供依据。[方法]应用德尔菲法,邀请各相关领域专家评分,最后根据既定风险评估方案,应用公式P(风险)=[L(可能性)+I(危害性)+V(人群易感性)]/3计算风险等级,综合评价传染病的风险大小。[结果]通过两轮专家风险评估,专家积极系数为1.00,三个方面的权威系数分别为0.70、0.73、0.71,协调系数分别为0.68、0.65、0.67,专家意见趋势一致。将传染病发生的可能性、危害性和易感性进行综合分析,流行性感冒的综合风险为高,肺结核、手足口病、甲型H7N9流感、水痘和甲型H1N1流感的综合风险较高,麻疹、猩红热、流行性腮腺炎和人高致病性禽流感的综合风险一般。[结论]松江区2013—2014年冬春季呼吸道传染病防控工作应重点关注风险高和较高的疾病。相关科室应完善相应传染病应急预案,定期开展演练,总结工作经验和教训,努力做好冬春季呼吸道传染病的防控工作。

[Objective] By means of risk assessment,to explore the likelihood,harmfulness,population susceptibility and comprehensive risk in relation to infectious respiratory diseases in late winter of2013 and early spring of 2014 in Songjiang District of Shanghai,providing the basis for prevention and control of infectious diseases. [Methods] Delphi method was used and experts were invited to score for designed questions. Infectious respiratory diseases comprehensive risks were evaluated by applying the formula P（ Risk） =[L（ likelihood） ＋ I（ impact） ＋ V（ vulnerability） ]/3 according to the risk evaluation plan.[Results] After two rounds of risk evaluation by experts,the coefficient of expert activity was 1.00,the coefficient of authority was 0. 70,0. 73 and 0. 71 respectively in likelihood,harmfulness and susceptibility,and the coefficient of coordination was 0. 68,0. 65 and 0. 67 respectively. The viewpoints of experts tended to be consistent. Comprehensive analysis showed that the risk of influenza was high,and tuberculosis,HFMD,influenza A H7N9 avian influenza,smallpox and influenza A H1N1 avian influenza were relatively high too,while the risk of measles,scarlet fever,mumps were moderate. [Conclusion] During late winter of 2013 and early spring of 2014 in Songjiang District,close attention should be paid to the risk of influenza,tuberculosis,HFMD,influenza A H7N9 avian influenza,smallpox and influenza A H1N1 avian influenza. And it is important that emergency plans should be formulated or improved,drills carried out periodically,and experience and lessons summarized.