陕西省人口城镇化与就业增长之间的关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证检验

The study on the Relationship between Population Urbanization and Employment Growth in Shaanxi Province——An Empirical Test Based on VAR model

陕西省人口城镇化发展水平与就业增长之间是否存在真实的影响关系,人口城镇化发展水平是否构成就业增长波动的动因?如果人口城镇化水平能促进就业增长,那么促进过程在长短期又具有表现出什么特性?基于此,本文采用1978年-2012年的样本数据,运用协整理论、误差修正模型和VAR模型实证检验陕西省就业增长与人口城镇化水平之间的真实影响关系,从而提出针对性措施以促进陕西就业增长与人口城镇化的包容性发展。

Is there a real influential relationship between the population urbanization level and employment growth in Shaanxi province？ Is the population urbanization level the motivation for employment growth fluctuation？ If the population urbanization level can promote the growth of employment, then what are the characteristics in the short term in the process？ Based on above questions, by means of sample data from 1978 to 2012, using cointegration theory, error correction model and VAR model, the paper makes an em-pirical test on the real influential relationship between the employment growth and the population urbanization level in Shaanxi province, and proposes specific measures to promote the inclusive development of the employment growth and the population urban-ization in Shaanxi province.