中国人口老龄化序列分析预测研究

China's Aging Population Studies by Series Analysis

首先根据1990年~2012年我国65岁以上人口数据,运用时间序列分析预测未来十几年中国的老龄化人口,接着运用回归分析研究老龄化人口与人口出生率,死亡率,自然增长率,人均GDP,卫生总费用,人口密度,普通本专科毕业人数这七个指标的相关关系,得出线性回归方程。最后依据这些研究对缓解人口老龄化提出合理建议。

Firstly, according to the population of our country over the age of 65 from1990 to 2012, we predict the aging population more than ten years in the future by using time series analysis. Then we use regression analysis to study the aging of population and birth rate, death rate, natural growth rate, per capita GDP, total health expenses, population density, the number of normal college graduates, and get the linear regression equation. Finally, on the basis of the study the areticle puts forward reasonable proposals in order to alleviate the aging of the population.