河南省农用地集约利用影响因素分析及实证研究——基于BP神经网络和岭回归分析

An analysis and Empirical Study on the Factors in Intensive Utilization of Agricultural Land in Henan Province——Base on BP ANN and Ridge Regression

基于农用地集约利用水平的综合测度,深入分析影响因素对其产生的影响效果,对于挖掘农用地利用潜力和保障粮食安全有着重要意义。利用河南省1978—2012年的相关数据,建立适用于河南省的农用地集约利用评价体系,用BP神经网络对农用地集约利用水平进行测算,在此基础上构建河南省农用地集约利用变化的多元回归模型,借助岭回归估计修正了回归模型中的系数。研究结果表明:1978—2012年期间,河南省农用地集约利用水平整体呈现出上升趋势;农用地集约利用综合指数与农用地受灾面积、农业人口和人均耕地面积存在负相关关系,与有效灌溉面积、农民人均收入、农业总产值和政策法规存在正相关关系;农用地受灾面积、有效灌溉面积、农民人均收入、农业总产值、农业人口、人均耕地、政策法规每变化1单位将分别引起农用地集约利用综合指数变化0.046 13、0.200 04、0.202 68、0.207 38、0.024 16、0.218 55、0.156 65单位的变动。

Measuring the level of intensive utilizationin of agricultural land,and deeply analyzing the influencing factors in intensive utilizationin of agricultural landhas great significance for tapping potential of intensive use of agricultural land and ensuring food security. Based on the time- series data of Henan Province from 1978 to 2012,the index system of agricultural land use intensity was established,the levels of agricultural land intensive utilization were calculated by using BP ANN when the index system of agricultural land use intensity of Henan Province was constructed. On this basis,the multiple regression model of agricultural land intensive utilization in Henan Province was established,and using ridge regression the coefficients of the multiple regression model were corrected. The results showed that,the levels of agricultural land intensive utilization in Henan Province increased gradually from 1978 to 2012. The composite index of agricultural land intensive utilization had negative relationship with agricultural disaster area,agricultural population,per- capita area,and had positive negative correlation with effective irrigation area,per- capita net income of farmers,total value of farm output,policies and regulations. A unit of changes in the agricultural disaster area,effective irrigation area,per- capita net income of farmers,total value of farm output,agricultural population,per- capita area and policies and regulations caused changes in,the composite index of agricultural land intensive utilization by 0. 046 13,0. 200 04,0. 202 68,0. 207 38,0. 024 16,0. 218 55 and 0. 156 65 units.