中国通胀预期的形成与演变:公众学习的视角

Analysis on the Effects of Public Learning on Inflation Expectation Formation:Theoretical and Empirical

本文以新凯恩斯DSGE模型为骨架,构建公众学习机制并探讨其对通胀预期形成与演变的影响。研究表明:(1)我国通过调整通胀目标,包容了外生冲击对实际通胀的影响,在保持货币政策相对稳健性的同时促成通胀的大起大落;(2)公众学习不仅在我国存在且对通胀预期产生显著影响,其程度受到政策可信度、外生冲击类型、信号噪声比和通胀目标持续性等制约。在管理通胀预期时我国应选择合理通胀目标调整方式,并提高政策透明度与可信度,积极塑造公众的预期。进一步深化经济体制改革,稳步提高经济吸纳外部冲击的能力,使得潜在通胀压力能通过有效的市场化改革得到有序释放。

This paper takes neo- Keynesian DSGE model as the framework,constructs public learning model and probes into its effects on inflation expectation formation. Research finds:(1) Chinese government contains the effects of exogenous shock on actual inflation by adjusting inflation targets,which promotes the great ups and downs of inflation while keeping the relative prudence of monetary policy and the phenomenon that the coexistence of adjustment lag of monetary policy and economic smoothness arises;(2) Public learning not only exists in China,but also it has significant effects on inflation expectation formation. Its degree is constrained by the creditability of monetary policy,the type of exogenous shock,signal- noise ratio and the sustainability of inflation targets. China should select reasonable adjustment means of inflation target while managing inflation expectation and raise its control transparency and creditability of monetary policy and actively shape public expectation. We should further deepen Chinese economic system reform,stably raise the capacity of absorbing outer shocks and make the potential inflation pressure can be released orderly by efficient marketization reform.