农村制度变迁、流动性约束与中国农村居民消费增长

Rural Institutional Change,Liquidity Constraint and Consumption Growth of Rural Residents in China

在中国农村市场化改革和制度变迁的背景下,通过构建农村居民消费理论模型,利用2003-2011年中国省际动态面板数据进行了经验研究。研究发现,受农村居民收入制约和流动性约束,农村居民的各类消费均表现为缺乏弹性;农村居民的消费行为更具理性和长期性,遵循需求层次理论,且具有明显的＂阈值＂效应;农村居民的习惯形成更多集中于衣着和教育消费支出,在其他消费支出中则不显著。由于农村制度变迁带来的不确定性抑制了农村居民消费增长,因此,加强农村制度保障和制度引导,消除制度不确定性,确保农民享有土地流转收入配置权,提供农村金融信贷支持,是实现农村居民消费增长的现实途径。

Institutional change profoundly impacts on economic behavior of residents. This paper constructs theoretical models of rural residents＇ consumption on the background of market-oriented reforms and institutional change in the Chinese countryside,and the empirical research based on 2003-2011 Chinese inter-provincial dynamic panel data found that, rural residents have shown a wide range of consumer lack of flexibility because of the income constraint and liquidity constraint. Rural residents＇ consumption behavior becomes more and more rational and long-term,and has a clear＂threshold＂effect following the hierarchy of needs. More rural residents form the habit formation of focusing on clothing and education spending,the other is not significant. The uncertainty due to rural institutional change inhibits the growth of consumption of rural residents. Therefore,strengthening rural institutions and institutional safeguards,eliminating system uncertainty,ensuring that farmers have the right to the land transfer revenue and providing credit support to rural finance is a realistic way to achieve growth in consumption of rural residents.