吐鲁番旅游收入本底趋势线的建立——基于近十二年的数据

The Foundation of Tourism Background-Trend-Line of Turpan Tourism Income based on the Nearly 12 Years Data

以吐鲁番旅游总收入数据为代表,借助旅游本底趋势线的研究方法和关于危机评估的理论,从修订数据、模型建立、数据分析、危机评估、结论等方面对吐鲁番旅游收入进行了研究;通过模型的建立,可以发现吐鲁番旅游业呈现指数—正弦线模型状况,根据模型预测出吐鲁番旅游收入的未来趋势出现稳定增长的趋势;进行危机评估可以了解重大事件对吐鲁番旅游收入的影响,得出结论并提出改进策略,促进吐鲁番地区旅游业的发展。

Taking the data of Turpan tourism income as a typical exemple, using the research method of tourism background-trend-line and the theory of crisis evaluation, this paper studies the Turpan tourism income with revising data, modeling, data analysis, crisis evaluation and conclusion. According to the model, it is found that Turpan tourism appears under the index-sine model. Based on the model, it is predicted the Turpan tourism income presents the steady growth trend. it is proved in the paper that crisis evaluation can realize the effect of important events on the Turpan tourism income. It draws conclusion and puts forward the corresponding strategies for the improvement of Turpan tourism industry.