基于包络带模型的万源市富硒茶叶产量预测

The Forecast of Wanyuan's Selenium-rich Tea Production Based on Model of Envelope

根据万源市2004～2010年茶叶产量的统计数据,建立灰色系统的包络带模型,对2011年产量进行预测。通过检验,包络带模型预测的相对误差为1.08%,小于直接采用GM（1,1）预测,模型精度达到了较高要求,能为促进万源市富硒茶叶业持续健康发展提供依据。

Setting up a model of grey envelope and forecasting selenium-rich tea production of Wanyuan in 2011,the reaserch is made according to the statistics about output of tea from 2004 to 2010. By examination,the conclusion is that relative error to model of grey envelope is 1.08%,which inferiors to forecast by GM（1.1）. Model precision qualifies as high requirement , it provides bases for promoting selenium-rich tea of Wanyuan development sustainably and healthily.