消费者偏好与真实生活成本

Consumer Preference and True Cost of Living

本文在消费者偏好结构可变的假设下,探讨了1998—2012年我国消费者真实生活成本。研究表明,忽视消费者偏好结构的变化通常会高估消费者真实生活成本水平和增长幅度,而这种替代偏误的程度取决于基期的选择。研究认为,政府有关部门在使用消费者物价指数制定相关政策(尤其是福利政策)时,非参数型真实生活成本指数GFT(P1k)可能比一般的拉氏物价指数更为合适。因此,建议统计部门在使用拉氏物价指数统计消费者物价水平的同时,应该定期编制并公布GFT(P1k)指数。

This paper studies true cost of living for consumers in China between 1998 and 2012 by considering consumer preference to be or not to be a variable. This study shows that ignoring changes in preference structure frequently leads to the overestimation of the consumer＇s true cost of living and its growth. Furthermore, the substitution biases are dependent on chosen base year. Based on the above findings, when relevant government departments make policies （especially welfare policies） using consumer price index, an alternative index such as the non-parametric true cost of living index, GFT（PI ） studied in this paper may be more appropriate than the usual Laspeyres CPI. We would like to suggest that the statistical authorities should also consider routinely compiling and publishing the non-parametric true cost of living index, together with the Laspeyres CPI.