国际贸易与碳排放的空间维度溢出——基于中国30个省域数据的空间计量验证

A Verification of International Trade and Carbon Emissions Spatial Overflow Based on 30 Provinces Data and Spatial Econometrics Model

本文以省域为空间样本,采用空间计量学的方法分析中国省域的碳排放与国际贸易相关因素的动态关系。结果显示,我国省域碳排放在空间上存在空间依赖性,碳排放受到本地碳排放和相邻碳排放的共同影响,局域相关也显示出空间集聚特征;国际贸易对省域碳排放的弹性系数显著为正,并且有降低的趋势;人口增长、技术进步的作用也相对较大,技术进步在一定程度上减少了碳排放量。因此,政府部门在制定碳减排政策和国际贸易调控措施时,应该积极考虑区域间的低碳技术合作,同时,考虑空间作用机制对碳排放的差异化作用。

At present, the environment problem has caused extensive concern all over the world. China has become the largest carbon emissions country in the world. Internationally, and assume responsibility for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It can accelerate out of the China＇s predicament of economic development and achieve sustainable development. According to World Bank statistics, the responsibility of the carbon dioxide emissions of greenhouse gases up to 58.8%. Soytas believes that in addition to natural factors, the carbon emissions resulting from human consumption of fossil fuels is the main cause of global warming. The existing studies on carbon emissions mainly in three aspects, but the problems of environment affected by carbon emissions and international trade have not caused widespread concern around the world. Due to significant regional differences in China, the traditional carbon emissions data analysis can not reveal significant differences in regional spatial extent of the impact on carbon emissions and scope. This paper applies Spatial Econometric Model to analyzing the dynamic relationship between provincial carbon emissions and the international trade in China. In this study, based on provincial carbon emissions, using spatial statistics and spatial econometric model for influencing factors of provincial international trade, population growth and technological progress on carbon emissions empirical analysis, spatial dependence and international trade carbon emissions inspection area, population growth and technological progress on carbon emissions space mechanism of action, analyze the spatial area of carbon emissions and international trade trends. Draw domestic and foreign relevant research literature roots, according to China＇s actual situation, and taking into account international trade in a region not only conducive to progress in areas of technology, but also on the presence of interaction with the population, the availability of reference data. Identified three important factors of carbon emissions： export dependence, population growth and technological progress which are international traderelated, and compare analyze by different stages. Analysis： Global spatial autocorrelation overall describes the spatial distribution of region carbon emissions from the perspective of region space. Moran index is a parameter under symmetry transformations, including both raw data vector information and spatial matrix weight matrix information. When set the model according to different reflect method of ＂spatial dependence＂, the spatial econometric models are divided into two types： （ 1 ） Spatial Lag Model （SLM）. Spatial lag models are used to study the case of adjacent area to see whether carbon emissions have an impact on carbon emissions of other areas in the entire system. （2） Spatial error model. The need for adopt spatial error model when the interactions is differences because of the relative position of the different regions are different. The results ： First of all, spatial correlation of carbon emissions cording to the global Moran＇s I statistic and null hypothesis test, the among provinces are estimated preliminary acpresence of carbon emissions provincial spatial dependence in space, local correlation also shows spatial agglomeration characteristics; carbon emissions of provin- cial international trade elasticity coefficient is significantly positive and it is decreased; population growth, technology relatively large roles in the progress of technical progress to some extent reduce carbon emissions, and it can be seen different characters in different stages. Recommendation： We should abandon the simple pursuit of trade surplus and expand exports practice in encouraging international trade development, because technology progress plays a relatively important role in controlling and decreasing emissions, therefore, apart from generating carbon reducing and energy price controls policies, the authorities should actively consider the regional cooperation of low-carbon technology, and the difference spatial mechanism to the carbon emissions from the view of international trade should also be considered. We adjustments to the energy-saving industry as the main export trade situation. Government departments in the development of carbon emission reduction policies and international trade control measures, and should actively consider inter-regional cooperation in low-carbon technologies, while considering the role of spatial differentiation mechanism for carbon emissions.