北美非常规油气蓬勃发展十大动因及对区域油气供需的影响

Top ten causes of unconventional oil and gas resources boom in North America and its influence on regional supply and demand

为了研究北美非常规油气成功之路的经验,找出可以借鉴、仿效之处,通过分析其蓬勃发展的关键所在,总结出十大动因:丰富的非常规油气资源、有利的自然条件、先进的开发技术、完整的服务产业、强劲的消费需求、成熟的油气市场、充足的资本投资、完善的行业政策、谨慎的环保态度和共赢的利益分享,并与其他地区的相关指标做了分类对比。由于这些因素多属北美地区所特有,在其他地区很难全部实现,故其成功发展之路在其他地区不能照搬只可借鉴。通过分析还得到了其对区域油气供需的影响:1页岩气产量增加使得近年来美国对于进口加拿大天然气的需求降低,导致加拿大天然气产量下降,且由于供给力度加大,美国天然气的出口量与消费比例呈明显增加趋势;2逐渐增多的LNG出口终端有助于缓解当前"孤岛效应",但短期内难以改变;3美国与加拿大致密油产量增加逐步降低美国石油对外依存度与对北美外依存度。

This study analyzes the key to unconventional oil and gas development in North America, in order to learn from the successful experience. Top ten causes of unconventional oil and gas boom in North America are identified, including abundant unconventional resources, favorable natural conditions, advanced development technology, integrated service industry, strong consumption demand, mature oil and gas market, sufficient investment capital, perfect industry policy, cautious environmental attitudes and winwin benefit sharing. These ten causes are subject to classification and comparison with relevant indicators in other regions of the world. Most of the ten factors are unique in North America and hard to be realized in other regions. Thus, the success of unconventional oil and gas development in North America cannot be directly copied but should be referred to appropriately. The resultant influences on regional supply and demand of unconventional resources are as follows： （1） The increment in shale gas production reduces the demand of the United States for gas import from Canada, therefore decreasing gas production in the latter. Due to increased supply, the gas export and consumption ratio of the United States show an obviously rising trend. （2） Gradually increasing liquefied natural gas export terminals help to mitigate the ＂islanding effect＂, but the present situation is hard to be changed in a short term. （3） The increment in tight oil production of the United States and Canada gradually reduces import dependence of the United States on oil from both foreign and non-North-American regions.