跨境电子商务对进出口贸易影响的实证分析

The Effect of Cross- Border E- Commerce on Bilateral Trade

该文采用理论模型与实证分析相结合的方法,研究了中国跨境电子商务发展对进出口贸易及贸易周期的影响。该文创新点在于:以不完全竞争市场为基础,建立电子商务环境下的国际贸易市场模型,同时运用实证分析,采用协整分析方法,进一步建立ARCH模型和向量自回归模型,以揭示跨境电子商务发展与进出口贸易的关系。研究表明,跨境电子商务发展与进出口贸易之间存在长期均衡关系,跨境电子商务的发展能够增加进出口贸易的波动性,并且呈同方向变化。

This paper studies the impact of e-commerce development on trades and trade volatility by combining the theoretical analyses with the demonstration proof-test. There are two main innovative points. On the one hand, the thesis establishes an international trade market model under e-commerce environment based on imperfect competition market. On the other hand, it reveals the relationship between e-commerce development and importexport trade by cointegration test, ARCH model and a VAR model. Finally, the study shows that there has been a long-run equilibrium relationship between e-commerce development and bilateral trade. Moreover, e-commerce development can increase the volatility of the import and export trade, which shows changes in the same direction.