经济开放度的再测算与中国经济增长

Recalculating Economic Openness and China's Economic Growth

文章基于中国1985-2013年的货物贸易、服务贸易、直接投资和间接投资数据,结合AHP层次分析法和熵权法重新测算了中国整体经济开放度,在此基础上构建计量模型。研究发现经济开放对中国经济增长具有非线性的促进机制:经济开放度的提升既通过吸引FDI增加了可直接利用的资本要素,又通过FDI技术溢出和开放度程度的增加提高了全要素生产率。但加入WTO之后,经济开放度的提升对经济增长的促进作用开始下降。经济发展驱动力开始由对外开放向对内深化改革和结构转型转变。

Based on the data of goods trade,service trade,direct investment and indirect investment collected from the year of 1985 to 2013 in China,the paper recalculates China’s overall economic openness by applying AHP method and entropy weight method, and builds an econometric model in accordance with the new overall economic openness. The study shows the nonlinear promotion effect of economic openness on China’s economic growth. The enhancement of economic openness not only raises the level of available capital endowment by attracting FDI,but also improves the total factor productivity by the increase of FDI technology spillover effect and economic openness. However,this promotion effect declines after China’s entry into the WTO. The driving force has been shifted from the opening to the outside world to the deepening reform and structure transition domestically.