人口结构转变、农业经济增长与农村居民消费

Demographic Structure Transition,Agricultural Economic Growth and Rural Residents' Consumption

利用2001至2012年中国农村省级面板数据,考察了人口结构转变、农业经济增长以及它们的交互作用对农村居民消费的影响。研究结论表明:少儿抚养比下降对农村居民消费产生显著负向影响,而老人抚养系数升高对农村居民消费具有不显著的正向影响,当前农村人口结构转变将有助于提升农村居民消费;农业经济的增长将有利于提升农村居民消费水平,其对居民消费上升的贡献会随着少儿抚养比的下降而被强化,但随着老人抚养比的上升逐步被弱化。

Using the provincial panel data in rural China from 2001 to 2012, this paper inspects the effect of demographic structure transition , agricultural economic growth and the effect of their interaction on rural residents＆#39;consumption .Conclusion of this study shows that the drop in the young dependent ratio has remarkable negative effects on residents＆#39;consumption , the rise in old dependent ratio has non-signifi-cant positive effects on residents＆#39;consumption , and the current demographic structure transition in rural areas will be contributed to promoting rural residents＆#39;consumption; The growth of agricultural economy will be contributed to promoting the level of rural residents＆#39;consumption , and this contribution is strengthened following the decrease of young dependent ratio , but it is gradually weakened following the rise of the old dependent ratio .