城镇化进程中的农村人口转移与分布空间

Rural Population Transfer and Distribution Space in Urbanization Process

基于＂五普＂与＂六普＂数据的追踪预测,从城镇化率、潜力系数、＂三力模型＂三个方面进行分析,得出结论：2030年农村累积转移人口数将达3~3.5亿左右,农村未来转移人口的规模、潜力及动力仍然比较大。鉴于此,国家可以尝试选择：传统地理大区＂组团＂、国家＂主体功能区＂规划、城镇化率＂等级规模结构＂这三种转移人口分布的空间模式。同时,围绕＂分散＂、＂集中＂、＂优化＂的分布方式,实施相应的政策建议,以破解农村转移人口分布的空间选择及相关问题。

Based on the tracking prediction of “the 5th and 6th census” data, and the analysis from the aspects of the urbanization rate , potential coefficient and three-force model , we come to the conclusion that the cumulative transfer population in the rural areas will reach about 0.3-0.35 billion in 2030, and the scale , potential and power of the rural transfer population in the future are still relatively large .Be-cause of this, we suggest that the country may choose three kinds of spatial distribution patterns for the transfer population：the traditional geographical region “groups”, the national “main functional areas”, and the urbanized “scale structure”.Meanwhile , around the distribution modes of “dispersion”, “fo-cus”,“optimization”, government should implement corresponding policies and recommendations , in or-der to crack the related space distribution problems of the rural transfer population .