财政支出对居民消费的实证分析

Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Expenditure on Consumption

自20世纪90年代中后期以来,我国居民消费率一直低于世界平均水平并且徘徊在百分之三十几的低位。因此,财政支出对居民消费影响的研究,不仅是一个重要的理论问题,更是一个关系到经济平稳增长,提高人民生活水平的现实问题。从20世纪70年代至今,经济学家对财政支出和居民消费的关系进行了大量的理论与实证研究。文章将采用2007-2011年的省级面板数据,应用实证方法分析财政支出对居民消费的影响,研究结果表明:近年来财政支出对居民消费主要是挤入效应。

Since the late ninety＇s of the twentieth century,our consumption rate has been lower than the world average level and around 30 percent of low. Therefore,the research on household consumption expenditure is not only an important theoretical problem,also a reality problem,which influences the stable economic growth and improves the living standards of the people. Since the seventy＇s of the twentieth Century,economists have used a number of theoretical and empirical research on the relationship between fiscal expenditure and consumption. This paper will use the provincial panel data from 2007 to 2011,using empirical method to analyze the impact of fiscal expenditure on consumption. The results show that： In recent years,fiscal expenditure on consumption is mainly the crowding in effect.