养老保险统筹账户:基于可持续运行角度的参数效应研究

The Pension Insurance Pooling Account:Parameter Effect Analysis Based on Sustainability

文章针对城镇职工基本养老保险统筹账户面临的问题,重建了可持续运行能力的衡量指标。以现行制度为基础构建模型,利用精算方法预测统筹账户收支规模及平均替代率的变化趋势。在对退休年龄、在岗职工的平均工资和参保人数对账户可持续性造成综合影响进行比较静态分析之后发现:提高参保率是较为得力的措施。同时文章还借鉴国外经验提出了相应的政策建议。

Aiming at the problems,this paper rebuilds indexes to measure the sustainable operation capacity of the pension insurance pooling account for urban workers. Based on the current system,the model is constructed,and the actuarial method is used to predict the pooling account balance scale and the change rate of average substitution rate. The comprehensive effect on the sustainability of account,which retirement age,average wage and staff number have,is compared and analyzed. Then we find that increasing insurance rate is one of the most effective measures. Finally,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations by learning from foreign experience.