红利消退、阶段拐点和中国增长方式转变

Dividend Dissipation,Turning Point and China's Growth Mode Transformation

本文以对曾经引致中国经济增长的转轨红利、人口红利和外资外贸红利为主要分析对象,论证了诸多红利消退现象正在发生,并从逻辑上证明了传统增长模式下的高速增长在今后难以为继,从而迎来了阶段性的拐点。运用面板门限估计的方法对中国数据进行实证检验,证明了红利消退以及新阶段到来这一基本结论。未来以寻求新的红利空间来促进经济增长方式的转变才是必由之路。

One of interpretation on ＂China miracle＂ is that the high rate of economic growth resulted in too many ＂dividends＂. With time passing, especially after years of rapid growth, macro environment for China＇s economic development has undergone many significant changes, and many dividends dissipation become the most typical facts. This paper, through analyzing transition dividends, demographic dividend and the foreign investment and trade dividends which caused the rapid China＇s economic growth in the past, demonstrates that a lot of dividends dissipation is taking place. And we also explain that traditional growth mode with rapid growth will be unsttstainable in the future, which means the turning point of development stage has appeared. Mean- while, we use panel threshold model to test the Chinese empirical data, and proved the basic conclusion with dividend dissipation and the arrival of turning point. So seeking space with new dividends to promote growth mode transformation is the important way for future development.