中国房地产走势:非常规空间聚集的视角

China's Real Estate Trends:From the Perspective of Abnormal Spacial Cluster

近年来,中国房地产开发投资的总体规模扩张和区域结构失衡逐渐演变成一种非常规的空间聚集现象。本文运用空间计量方法,通过计算房地产开发投资的Moran指数,验证了房地产开发投资非常规空间聚集的存在性、聚集程度和空间聚集结构。并借助CSAD非线性模型验证了羊群效应的存在性及对称性,解释了房地产开发投资非常规空间聚集的成因。同时,基于"潮涌现象"假说的分析进一步支持了中国房地产开发投资"羊群效应"的存在性。基于此,本文认为中国房地产开发投资羊群效应的持续存在,最终导致了房地产业"结构性过剩",从而致使当前房地产业进入下行趋势。

In recent years, the expansion of overall scale and the imbalance of regional strucarre of China＇s real estate development investment have gradually evolved into a kind of unconventionally spatial gathering, qlais pa- per employs the method of spatial measurement, verifying the existence, gathering degree and spatial gathering structure of unconventionally spatial gathering of real estate＇s development investment by calculating the Moran index of development investment of real estate. With the help of CSAD nonlinear model, it verifies the exis- tence and symmetry of herding effect and explains the cause of the unconventionally spatial gathering of real estate＇s development investment. At the same time, on the basis of the analysis of the wave phenomenon hy- pothesis, it further supports the existence of herding effect in China＇s real estate development investment. Based on this, this paper holds that the continued existence of herding effect in China＇s real estate development investment finally lead to the structural surplus of real estate industry, thus making the current real estate into a downward trend.