非寿险产品周期性及影响因素的比较分析——基于保险周期与承保周期理论

Cyclicity of Nonlife Insurance Products and A Comparative Analysis of Influencing Factors—Based on Insurance Cycles and Underwriting Cycle Theory

基于保险周期与承保周期的不同含义，利用1985—2012年的样本数据，本文利用cF滤波法计算了非寿险三大险种的保险周期与承保周期，并用多元回归模型分析比较了影响不同险种保险周期与承保周期的不同因素。研究结果发现：不同险种的保险周期基本一致，都为4至8年左右，也基本同时达到波峰或波谷；不同险种保险周期的影响因素也基本相同，主要受GDP、利率等宏观经济变量因素的影响。但是，不同险种的承保周期具有很大的差异，不但承保周期的长度差异很大，而且也并非同时达到波峰或波谷；不同险种承保周期的影响因素也各不相同，其中机动车辆保险的承保周期受各种因素的影响比较明显，而其他险种则除受赔款支出影响之外，其他因素的影响并不明显。因此，保险监管部门的逆周期监管应以承保周期为主要对象，并根据不同险种区别对待。

Insurance cycles should be different from underwriting cycles in theory. Based on the data of 1985- 2012, we calculated the insurance cycles and underwriting cycles of three major nonlife insurance products using the CF filter method. Then the influencing factors for insurance cycles and underwriting cycles were analyzed using mul- tiple regression models. The results showed that insurance cycles were almost the same for different insurance lines, failing within the range of 4-8 years, and hitting the crest or valley almost at the same time. The influencing factors were also similar, namely, GDP,interest rate and some other macroeconomic factors. But, underwriting cycles of dif- ferent insurance lines were quite different, which was true for both the length of the cycle and the timing of the crest or valley. Their influencing factors were also different. For instance, the underwriting cycle of automobile insurance was affected by almost all internal and external factors,while cycles of property insurance and cargo insurance were affected only by their claims amount. Therefore, for counter-cyclical regulation by the relevant authority, the focus should be put on the underwriting cycle with due consideration for different insurance lines.