市场化水平与中国经济波动的平稳化——基于扩展的RBC模型分析

Marketization and the Stabilizing Trend of China's Economic Fluctuations——Based on RBC Model

中国市场化改革由增量改革时期进入全面改革时期;同时,经济波动由"高位波动"向"波幅收窄"的平稳化趋势转变。本文建立包含金融加速器机制和市场化因素的RBC模型,数值模拟显示市场化水平越低下,金融加速器机制放大和传播外生冲击的效果越明显,市场化程度的提高减轻了政府对企业干预和金融加速器的放大效果,能够较好解释经济波动的阶段性变化。其政策含义为市场化有助于增强经济稳定性,抑制经济波动。

China＇ s marketization reform has shifted from incremental to comprehensive;at the same time,a stabilized trend from ＂high volatility＂ to ＂volatility narrowing＂ has appeared in China＇ s economy. Based on the above stylized facts, the paper establishes a RBC model including the financial accelerator mechanism and marketization factors. Using numerical simulation,it has been found that the effect of the financial accelerator mechanism to enlarge and propagate the exogenous shocks to economy was larger in lower marketization. Moreover, the improvement of marketization of China reduces the degree of the government intervention in the firms and the amplification effect of the financial accelerator mechanism. Thus, China＇ s marketization process can better explain the stage changes in economic fluctuations.