中越南海争端解决模式探索——基于区域外大国因素与国际法作用的分析

Models for Resolution of the China-Vietnam Dispute in the South China Seas:The Role of External Major Powers and International Law

越南是中国维护南海主权的主要挑战,如何化解中越争端成为解决南海问题的关键。美日印等区域外大国以维护国际法的名义介入南海问题,目的在于防范和遏制中国,维持美国及追随者在亚太地区的霸权和有利地位,这符合越南的利益并压缩了中国解决南海问题的选择空间。但随着中国区域拒止能力的增强及美日印的合理利益得以确保,后者介入南海争端的决心呈逐渐下降的趋势。南海争端属于政治争端,很难通过国际司法途径获得解决,越南主张通过国际司法途径解决争端的目的是希望借助美日支持,通过滥用国际法条款达到其利益最大化的目的。虽然越南欢迎美日印等国介入,但又对美国充满戒备,对中国留有余地。目前,在以武力、国际法和搁置争议的方式维护南海主权均比较困难的情况下,中国应利用越美矛盾,在做军事斗争准备的同时,探索以实力为基础和平化解中越争端的模式。中国如能采取政经分离的模式,以经济权利的共享换取政治主权的和平维护,则不仅可化解美日印利用南海问题遏制中国的企图,同时也有利于提升中国在区域内的影响力。

Vietnam is the main challenger of China in the South China Seas and how to settle the disputes between China and Vietnam is the key factor in the South China Seas issue.While Vietnam has welcomed U.S.involvement in the South China Seas,it is also concerned that American involvement might harm Vietnamese interests over the longer term.At present,given the difficulty China has safeguarding its sovereignty over the South China Seas through the use of force,application of international law and shelving disputes,China should leverage opportunities that arise around contradictions between Vietnam and the U.S.At the same time,as it prepares for a military struggle,it should also explore peaceful means of resolving the Sino-Vietnam dispute based on its own capacities.China should work to enhance the international environment as a means of decreasing the attempts of the U.S.and Japan to contain China by exploiting the South China Seas.