希望与恐惧:美国人口的悖论

Hopes and Fears: The Paradox of American Population Growth

21世纪以来,美国的人口状况有了新的变化。人口数量持续增长,年轻化趋势明显,结构日益多样化,且人口中心持续向西南部迁移,这些发展态势对于美国而言可谓喜忧参半。一方面,如果保持现在的出生率和移民速度,美国将持续享受人口规模所带来的红利;另一方面,日趋多样化的人口结构正在使美国变成族裔问题越来越突出的社会,多元文化主义的兴起冲击着盎格鲁—新教文化的主流地位。出于忧虑与恐惧,信奉新教的盎格鲁-撒克逊白人保守势力大搞"恐惧政治"以维护他们在政治上的统治地位。《爱国者法》的通过、"茶党"的兴起等一系列事件都体现了保守主义势力在政治上对多元文化主义兴起的强烈回应。

The United States is witnessing the changes in its population:increasing number of total population,lower average median age,more complex population structure,and the center of population moving southwestward. This new trend poses a paradox for American people. If U. S. keeps present natural birth rate and the immigration rate,it will continuously enjoy the demographic dividend,and the expanding size of immigrants guarantees the United States a young and energetic labor force. In the meantime,US advanced higher education system makes it enjoy an unparalleled position in terms of human capital stock. But,on the other hand,the rising of multiculturalism due to more diversified American society poses a great challenge to AngloProtestant culture. The trend of minority becoming majority creates worries and even fears among the WASP elite. In order to maintain the dominant position of AngloProtestant culture,they turn to the politics of fear to fight against multiculturalism and liberalism. The employment of the politics of fear by conservatives can be seen in such events as the passage of USA Patriot Act,the development of the Tea Party,the popularity of Voter ID laws and the judgment issued by the Supreme Court on the case of Mc Cutcheon v. Federal Election Commission.