基于典型小概率法大坝变形监控指标拟定

Dam deformation monitoring indicators developed based on typical small probability method

科学合理的大坝安全监控指标能综合分析和评价大坝的安全状况,因此大坝安全监控指标的拟定是大坝安全监控体系的核心和关键问题。基于大坝安全监测资料,根据大坝和坝基抵御所经历荷载的能力,用典型小概率法来评估和预测抵御可能发生荷载的能力,从而确定监控效应量的可能极值,即监控指标。以某水电站大坝为例,拟定了典型坝段的位移监控指标。实例表明,该方法简单可行,能准确的拟定大坝监控指标。

The reasonable monitoring index can be used in analyzing and evaluating the situation of dam safe-ty,so it is a key problem for managers to determine the monitoring index scientifically.Based on the observa-tion data,according to the performance of dam-foundation system under the experienced loads,bearing capaci-ties under the potential loads are evaluated ,and extreme values are predicted for different monitoring effect quantities by the small probability method ,namely the monitoring indicator.Displacement monitoring indicators of a dam have been done by this method.It is showed that this method is simple in practice and successful in avoiding the randomness of artificially assumption.It can accurately draft the dam monitoring indicators.