中国新版《石油可采储量计算方法》标准中存在的主要问题及建议

Reviews on problems and recommendations for new edition standard of The estimated methods of oil recoverable reserves in China

新版《石油可采储量计算方法》是由国家能源局于2010年12月15日发布实施的行业标准,至今已3 a有余,它是评估石油可采储量的重要规范。石油可采储量计算方法是该标准的核心部分,它将影响到评估结果的可靠性、可利用性和投资的风险性,因此,应当重视标准中计算方法的选用。新版标准的石油可采储量计算方法包括:类比法、经验公式法、驱油效率法、产量递减法和水驱曲线法,对于这些计算方法存在的若干不确定性和不可靠性问题进行了评论,并提出了有关的具体建议。建议删除可信度较低的经验公式,引用通过实际应用证明有效的国外经验公式,修正部分经验公式和产量递减法的公式,在判断递减类型和确定递减参数时,不要忽略线性试差法、曲线位移法和典型曲线拟合法的应用,删除由甲型和乙型水驱特征曲线派生的水驱曲线,增加预测模型法等内容。

The new edition of The estimated methods of oil recoverable reserves is the national industry standards released by National Energy Administration on 15 th December, 2010. It has been acting on for more than 3 years and is important for the assessment of oil recoverable reserves. The calculation method of oil recoverable reserves is the core part of the standard and has effects on the reliability and availability of the results and also the investment risk assessments. Therefore, attentions should be paid to the calculation methods selection. The calculation methods in the new standard include analogy method, empirical formula method, oil displacement efficiency method, production decline method and water drive curve method. In this paper, the uncertainty and the unreliability of these calculation methods were proposed along with the specific recommendations which can be concluded as follows: delete some empirical formula of less credibility, adopt some overseas empirical formula proved by practical application, modify some empirical and production decline formula, use the methods of linear trial and error, curve displacement, and typical curve fitting to determine the decline type and decline parameters, delete some water drive curves derived from A and B water drive characteristic curve, and add the method of prediction model.