基于全国城市PM2.5达标约束的大气环境容量模拟

Modeling study on atmospheric environmental capacity of major pollutants constrained by PM_(2.5) compliance of Chinese cities

基于第3代空气质量模型WRF-CAMx和全国大气污染物排放清单,开发了以环境质量为约束的大气环境容量迭代算法,并以我国333个地级城市PM2.5年均浓度达到环境空气质量标准(GB3095-2012)为目标,模拟计算了全国31个省市区SO2、NOx、一次PM2.5及NH3的最大允许排放量.分析结果表明,以城市PM2.5年均浓度达标为约束,全国SO2、NOx、一次PM2.5和NH3的环境容量分别为1363.26×104,1258.48×104,619.04×104,627.71×104t.2010年全国实际SO2、NOx、一次PM2.5和NH3排放量分别超过环境容量的66%、81%、96%、52%.空气污染较严重的河南、河北、天津、安徽、山东及北京6省市4项污染物排放量均超过环境容量1倍以上,环境容量严重超载区域与PM2.5高污染地区具有显著的空间一致性.

An iterative algorithm was developed to assess the atmospheric environmental capacity governed by air quality targets, based on the third generation air quality model WRF-CAMx and national emission inventory of major air pollutants. The atmospheric environmental capacity of SO2, NOx, primary PM2.5 and NH3 emissions by provinces were calculated with the constrain of annual average ambient PM2.5 concentration standard （GB3095-2012）. The results indicated that the national carrying capacity of SO2, NOx, primary PM2.5 and NH3 emissions was 1363.26×104t, 1258.48×104t, 619.04×104t, and 627.71×104t. The actual emissions of SO2, NOx, primary PM2.5 and NH3 in year 2010 were 66%, 81%, 96%, and 52%higher than the carring capacity. The emissions of these four types of air pollutants came from provinces that were severely polluted, such as Henan, Hebei, Tianjin, Anhui, Shandong, and Beijing, were exceeded 100%over its carrying capacity.