PM2.5健康风险的空间人口分布研究——以深圳为例

Study on Demographic Spatial Distribution of Health Risks Caused by PM2.5:A Case from Shenzhen

在各种环境污染问题中,PM2.5浓度超标导致的空气质量下降已成为近期国内外社会关注的热点,PM2.5浓度超标对人体健康的不利影响已经得到普遍认可,但关于PM2.5导致的人口健康风险后隐藏的人口、社会和经济因素及其作用研究在我国还不多见。本文构建了PM2.5浓度超标排放对人体健康风险影响因素的实证模型,利用地理加权回归模型探索性分析了人口空间分布与PM2.5浓度分布空间耦合对人口健康风险的影响。研究发现,PM2.5健康风险是在研究区域内具有空间动态的特点,不同人群面对PM2.5具有不同的健康风险,流动人口、贫困人口和非自有住房人口面对PM2.5健康风险时明显处于弱势。人口社会经济因素解释了PM2.5健康风险的45%。

With more and more serious problems of air quality, PM2.5 has become a popular topic in China, and its adverse impacts on human beings has discovered. However, the study about how the adverse impacts effect special population also does not see more in China. Based on theory of environmental equity and empirical research, the empirical model about factors of health risks of PM2.5 was constructed. The method of geographically weighted regression was employed to analyze the impacts of demographic and soci-economic factors on health risks of PM2.5. Health risks ofPM2.5 lie on how demographically spatial distributions match the spatial distribution of PM2. 5, and the floating population, the elderly and the non-home-ownership people are the vulnerable groups.