科技投资、技术引进对经济增长集约化的动态效应——基于状态空间模型的变参数估计

Dynamic Impacts of Investment in Scientific and Technological Activities and Spillover Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Intensive Economic Growth:A Varying Parameter Test of the State-Space Model

技术进步是提升经济增长集约化水平的主要因素,而科技投资和技术引进是促进技术进步的两条主要路径。运用状态空间模型进行实证检验表明:科技投入对经济增长集约化水平具有正面作用,外资技术溢出对经济增长集约化水平具有负面作用。科技投入对经济增长集约化水平的正面作用随时间不断变化。1979—1993年科技投入对经济增长集约化水平的正面作用总体上呈波动上升趋势,1994—2011年科技投入的正面作用总体上不断下降。外资技术溢出对经济增长集约化水平的负面作用具有明显的阶段特征,1979—1992年呈波动状态,1993—2011年没有明显变化。

Technological progress is the main factors of improving economic growth intensive level, investment in scientific and technological activities is two main paths of technological progress. The paper tests dynamic impacts of investment in scientific and technological activities and spillover effects of foreign direct investment on economic growth intensive in China with data from 1978 to 2011 by the state-space model. The results show that investment in scientific and technological activities could improve intensive level of economic growth, spillover effect of FDI hindered rising of the economic growth intensive level. Positive role investment in scientific and technological activities changed on economic growth intensive with time. Positive role was overall a fluctuating ascending trend between 1979 and 1993, wasoverall declining between 1994 and 2011. Negative role of FDI spillover effect had distinct features of stages on economic growth intensive level. Negative role of FDI spillover effect was fluctuating state between 1979 and 1992, negative effect didn＇t significantly change between 1993--2011.