农产品价格趋势的数学建模和预测——以玉米为例

Mathematical Modeling and Prediction of Agricultural Products Prices——A Case Study of the Price of Corn

从实际情况出发,以1979年来我国农产品市场玉米价格的波动特征和规律为研究对象,主要运用计量经济模型中的多元线性回归法、加权最小二乘法、White检验、D-W检验、科克伦-奥克特迭代法、广义差分法以及EVIEWS软件,量化分析蕴含在玉米价格波动里的经济特征,对玉米价格作出模拟和预测研究.结果表明,该模型有较好的应用价值.

This paper is based on the actual situation and takes the price fluctuations on the market of agricultural products of China since1979 as the research subject. Research methods in Econometric Model, such as multiple linear regression method, weighted least square method, White testing, D-W testing, cochran-orcutt iteration method, generalized difference method, and EVIEWS software, are used to conduct a quantitative analysis of the economic feature reflected in the fluctuations of the corn price in order to model and predict the price of corn. The findings of this study show that this model is valuable for application.