中国天然气利用业务的发展规律与展望

Developing rules and prospect of natural gas utilization in China

大力发展天然气利用业务是当前和今后较长时期内国内主要石油公司的发展战略。天然气利用与天然气消费是两个不同的概念,不能把天然气消费简单地等同于天然气利用,依据国家现行天然气利用政策的规定,天然气利用领域分为:城市燃气、工业燃料、天然气发电、天然气化工和其他用户五类。在对20世纪90年代初以来中国天然气利用业务发展进行梳理的基础上,采用分类比较分析的研究方法,揭示了天然气利用业务的发展有以下4个规律性特点:1天然气利用业务增速高于天然气供应量增速;2天然气利用业务增速快于天然气管网增速;3国家天然气利用政策对天然气利用结构变化趋势影响有限;4中国天然气利用业务受世界经济形势影响不大。结论认为:至2020年,中国天然气利用量可达4 300×108 m3,以城市燃气为主的天然气利用模式将得以确立,工业燃料用气增长空间有限,化工用气颓势明显但会维持一定的规模,发电用气始终摆脱不掉调峰的地位。

To develop natural gas utilization on a large scale will be the development strategy for those major national oil and gas companies in the long term.Natural gas utilization and consumption are two different concepts,and the former is not only simply equal to the latter gas utilization can be divided into urban gas,industrial fuel,natural gas power generation,natural gas chemical industry and other users according to the the current natural gas utilization policies.Therefore,this paper first made a brief review on the history of natural gas utilization development since the 90s of the 20th century.Then,the classified comparison was applied to disclose the following characteristics in this subject.（1） Natural gas utilization increases at a higher speed than both gas supply quantity and gas pipeline network development.（2） National natural gas utilization policies exerted a limited influence on the changing trend of natural gas utilization structure.（3） The world economic situation has very little impact on the natural gas utilization in China.In conclusion,about 430 billion m3 of natural gas will be needed for utilization in 2020,among which the urban gas will be the dominant demand ; the increasing space for natural gas as the industrial fuels will be restricted; the declining tendency of natural gas for chemical industry will be obvious but remain a certain scale; and natural gas-fueled power generation will play its irreplaceable role in peakshaving management.