我国蚕茧生产空间布局变迁及影响因素分析

Analysis on Transition of China's Cocoon Production Spatial Distribution and Its Influencing Factors

基于我国18个省(区、市)1990—2012年的蚕茧生产面板数据,运用区域重心分析法测度全国及主产区蚕茧生产空间布局的变迁轨迹,构建计量经济学模型实证分析蚕茧生产空间布局变迁的影响因素。研究结果表明,近20年我国蚕茧生产重心向西南亚热带地区移动的趋势十分明显,并且移动速度很快,蚕茧生产空间布局变迁与桑园面积、蚕种饲养量、张种蚕茧产量呈显著正相关,与农村居民人均纯收入和非农就业机会呈显著负相关,即显示蚕茧生产具有从农村经济发达地区向农村经济欠发达地区转移的规律。

Based on silkworm cocoon production data of China＇s 18 provinces（ districts or cities） from 1990 to 2012,the changing of cocoon production spatial distribution in the whole country and in the main cocoon producing areas was tracked by the gravity center method,and a panel data econometrics model was constructed to investigate the influencing factors of cocoon production spatial transition. The results show that gravity center of cocoon production obviously moved to southwest subtropical area with a high speed in recent 20 years. The transition of cocoon production spatial distribution was in significant positive relation with mulberry plantation area,silkworm-rearing amount,and cocoon output per box of silkworm eggs,but was in negative relation with net income of rural residents and non-agricultural employment opportunities,which indicated the pattern of cocoon production movement from rural economy developed areas to rural economy underdeveloped areas.